CBC’s 2026 Midyear Outlook Report
The overall U.S. commercial real estate recovery that began in 2025 accelerated early in 2026, with stronger capital flows, improved lending conditions and more active market participants. Transaction volume rose 19% year-over-year to $117 billion in 1Q26. Despite this momentum, the market remains highly bifurcated, with performance driven more by property fundamentals and local market conditions than broad macro trends. While activity has been resilient – as investors grow tired of waiting for a market correction – growth is uneven and concentrated in markets benefiting from job creation, population inflows, space needs, and structural changes in demand.
